Monaco Grand Prix 2025 betting predictions after qualifying

Round eight of the 2025 Formula 1 season brings us to the tight and twisting streets of Monte Carlo, where Lando Norris claimed a spectacular pole position for the Monaco Grand Prix. With the main race set for 9:00pm EST on Sunday, May 25, grid position is everything — and Norris put himself in the best possible spot for a famous win.

Norris on Pole as Leclerc, Piastri Line Up Behind

Lando Norris delivered one of the laps of the season in Q3, threading the needle through Monaco’s narrow barriers to grab his second pole of 2025. He edged out hometown hero Charles Leclerc , setting the stage for a blockbuster Sunday with overtaking almost off the table.

Norris was paying +250 with top sportsbooks prior to the weekend, but now shortened to just -161.29, further underscoring how crucial qualifying is — and how difficult overtaking remains — at Monaco.

Charles Leclerc, despite his well-documented misfortunes at his home Grand Prix, have a golden opportunity to deliver for the Tifosi once again. Starting from P2, the Monegasque driver will need a clean getaway and a touch of luck with safety cars or potential red flags to leapfrog the pole-sitter.

Leclerc was the favorite prior to qualifying after taking out all three free practice sessions; however, it was doubtful he could continue the pace into qualifying, but he was just edged out of pole.

Oscar Piastri lines up third on the grid after a clean but slightly cautious run through the final sector of qualifying. While still a strong starting position, it’s a somewhat disappointing result for the current Drivers’ Championship leader, who was hoping to be closer to the front row. He’ll be banking on early action — be it at the start or through safety car chaos — to make his move and keep his title momentum rolling.

The introduction of the mandatory two-stop rule adds a fresh layer of unpredictability to this year’s Monaco Grand Prix. Many are speculating that an early safety car could trigger a double pit stop strategy, allowing drivers to fulfill both mandatory stops in one go if timed perfectly. With the high likelihood of incidents in the opening laps, teams may be tempted to gamble early — setting up a fascinating tactical battle on one of F1’s most iconic stages.

Monaco Grand Prix 2025 Odds

• Lando Norris (McLaren) – -161.29
• Charles Leclerc (Ferrari) – +275
• Oscar Piastri (McLaren) – +500
• Max Verstappen (Red Bull) – +1200
• Lewis Hamilton (Ferrari) – +3300
• Fernando Alonso (Aston Martin) – +4000
• Isack Hadjar (VCARB) – +15000
• Alex Albon (Williams) – +25000
• George Russell (Mercedes) – +25000
• Liam Lawson (VCARB) – +25000

More odds available at Stake.com

Monaco GP 2025 Betting Predictions

Monaco Grand Prix 2025 Starting Grid